Clay Aiken, a singer discovered on American Idol, is working on the future, changing it one idea at a time. In July 2003, the Bubel/Aiken Foundation was established, its mission to establish a more inclusive society by supporting programs and work environments that integrate disabled and non-disabled individuals. Aiken is particularly interested in increasing the integration of the disabled community into the volunteer sector. Recognizing a trend of decreasing volunteerism and identifying the disabled as a largely untapped population for community work, Aiken founded the Able to Serve program, which provides grants to promote the volunteer work of young people with disabilities.¹

Aiken’s desire to make a difference led him to address the society’s view of the disabled population as recipients — versus givers — of services. He also addressed the societal trend of declining volunteerism in younger generations by making these opportunities available in the volunteer sector. For example, a teenager with cerebral palsy wanted younger disabled children to have community playground equipment access and was awarded a grant to purchase a wheelchair accessible swing. Another grant recipient, herself learning disabled, organized a team of other young people with disabilities, to build a wheelchair ramp for an elderly neighbor.¹

Nurses, too, want to make a difference in their lives and work. Does this desire mean they have to find a cause and form, fund, and run a foundation? No, but it does mean that for fulfilling professional and personal lives, nurses are well served by paying attention to the future, its trends, and the forecasts. Thinking about and placing the future on the radar screen helps every person plan with purpose and intelligence for what will happen to them, their family, their community, and those they serve.

Futurists from around the world and from all walks of life subscribe to the basic tenet that the future can be envisioned to a useful degree of accuracy. Achieving this accuracy necessitates understanding what futures work is and developing tactics and skills that enable this work.

Futures work is the study of what is going on in and around our world and the articulation of this information and knowledge into action to alter the course of circumstances. This type of work requires a a way of thinking that carries a passion for ideas and a desire to look beyond the here and now to see what is happening in the world, what it could lead to, and what can be done about it.

Futurists think seriously about altering the course of what lies ahead in terms of four distinct contexts: 1) The possible, or what may happen, taking into account all possibilities, even the unlikely and dramatic. 2) The plausible, or what could happen given the circumstances of the moment. 3) The probable, or what will likely happen based on appraisal of the current situation and trends. 4) The preferable, or what is desired to happen based on information, knowledge, goal setting, and deliberate course of action design.

Each of these futures holds possibilities and has applicability. By synthesizing information and looking at what’s possible, plausible, probable, and preferable, people can gain a picture of what is ahead and put into place actions to avert, encourage, or direct the course of events. However, centering on what is preferable allows for more controlled, deliberate action toward wanted results versus those that are consequences of the situation around us.

Futures work and directing action toward the preferable has application across all dimensions of living: global, national, community, system, professional, and personal. Futures work is humans shaping what happens by what they do. It is,
therefore, critically important to consider the future whenever decisions are made. According to former NATO ambassador Harlan Cleveland, “Futurism should be everyone’s ‘second profession.’”¹

People engaged in futures thinking and work come from varied professions and backgrounds. From student to professor, staff nurse to CNO, apprentice to CEO, it is difficult to imagine anyone in any profession or occupation who would not benefit from using the tools of futuring. While a variety of tools and scientific techniques exist, there are several commonsense methods that people use in their everyday life, including —²

Scanning, an ongoing effort to identify significant changes in the world beyond our environment through systematic review of materials and information. Examples include daily or weekly reading and review of newspapers, websites, or other media to search for trends or changes occurring through time.

Trend analysis, an examination of a trend to identify its nature, causes, speed of development, and potential effects. For example, longer life spans increase the number of people using resources (environmental, health, social security, medical devices) but may also increase the number of people working and contributing to the economy as paid and unpaid labor.

Trend monitoring, watchful reporting of a trend that is considered particularly important to a specific community, including unemployment rates, nursing position vacancy rates, emergent illness, even fashion trends.

Trend projection, the plotting of numerical data about a trend over time, extending or projecting out into the future on the basis of recent rate of change. Examples might be graphs showing population shifts, safety records or projections about economic status, consumer buying, or the life of a retirement fund.

Scenario development and analysis, the imagining of future possibilities based on what we know and forecast (project), for example, stories or outlines on what a new job would be like; what will happen if the social security fund is depleted; or what will it take to attract and retain more nurses.

Polling, asking others for their opinions and expertise, such as face-to-face conversations and telephone or electronic communication soliciting other points of view to understand the possibilities and assist with decision making.

Modeling and simulation, imitating the envisioned and real world through static models or dynamic interaction. Examples would be a two-dimensional model of a planned community that helps purchasers see the entire set-up or running practice drills or a team playing scrimmage games in preparation for a tournament championship game.

Brainstorming, the generation of new ideas by a small group who think creatively and build on each other’s creativity to solve a problem, capture an opportunity, or shift the direction of circumstances. An example would be a group think on a business proposal, financial investment decision, or workplace safety and efficiency processes.

Visioning, a systematic creation of what the desirable future looks like, starting with a review of past and current circumstances, then putting form around what is desirable, followed by planning of specific methods to achieve it.

Reacquainting ourselves with and redeploying these future tools is invaluable to everyone whether planning retirement, a job shift, or changing the course of direction of an organization, institution, or government. When considered or filtered through the six sectors of influence (demography, economics, environment, government, society, and technology), these tools provide a high degree of accuracy for determining future courses of action.

Concerning ourselves about future trends not only opens our minds to possibilities, but it is also an opportunity to — ²

• Generate ideas for work and home life
• Get early warnings for emerging opportunities and crises
• Gain confidence in taking risk through increased awareness and information
• Gain a competitive edge in seeing things coming
• Identify significant trends versus passing fancies
• Get your goals in balance
• Be informed on forces influencing your profession
• Gain a look of emerging futures and suitable circumstances for action
• Get yourself and others ready for the future

Concerning ourselves with the future also allows us to control it, to alter it, and to direct it toward our desired course.

So what do an American Idol singer, futurists, and nurses have in common? Simple: concern and interest in what lies ahead for people and themselves and an ability to do something about it.

Nancy Dickenson-Hazard, RN, MSN, FAAN, is the chief executive officer of the Honor Society of Nursing, Sigma Theta Tau International.

References

1. Wagner CG. Enabling the disabled to serve. The World Future Society website. Available at: www.wfs.org/ visionso04.html. Accessed September 15, 2004.

2. World Future Society. A special report: the art of foresight:
preparing for a changing world. The Futurist. 2004;38(3).